In Singapore, you can invest in gold in a few ways:

1) Buy physical gold (coins and bars);

2) Invest in gold ETF;

3) Open a Gold Savings Account;

4) Buy gold certificates.

PHYSICAL GOLD:

The best way to invest in physical gold is to buy them from UOB bank.

UOB sells readily recognisable gold bullion coins like the Gold American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, Australian Kangaroo Gold Nuggets and Singapore Lion Gold Bullion coins, in weights ranging from 1/20 oz to one oz (two oz coins are sometimes available).

Investors should take note that there are two categories of gold coins, namely, gold bullion coins and numismatic coins. You will want to buy gold bullion coins, which are sold at a small mark-up to the spot price. Numismatic coins are sold at very high prices relative to spot and are meant for coin collectors. You should avoid buying numismatic coins unless you are a coin collector or numismatic coin expert.

PROS:

Owning physical gold is probably the safest way to invest.

UOB issues receipts for the gold that they sell and is committed to buy them back at a small discount to the spot price of gold at any time, as long as the receipts are presented. That means you can sell your gold back to UOB at your convenience without having to look for a buyer yourself.

CONS:

You will be charged GST (presently at 7%) when buying  gold bullions in Singapore. Physical gold may not be easy to sell for a good price when you need money urgently, unless you buy them from UOB.  Physical gold may also be susceptible to theft or burglary.

CONCLUSION:

Owing physical gold is one of the safest and fun way to invest.

The best way is to buy them from UOB since they are committed to buy back the gold at any time. Just make sure you keep the receipts and the gold bullions in good condition. I personally think UOB is providing a very good service for investors by selling the gold at a competitive price for buyers and providing a ready buy-in market for sellers.

I will try to buy physical gold at as close to the spot price as possible (price is my number one consideration). I will also prefer to buy an internationally “recognisable” or well known legal tender coins, such as the Gold American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf and Australian Kangroo if they are sold at the same price as other “less known” bullion coins.

Gold American Eagle

Canadian Maple Leaf

Australian Kangaroo

GOLD SAVINGS ACCOUNT (GSA):

This is another service provided by UOB. Investors can open a Gold Savings Account from OUB just like opening a cash savings account. The difference is that your savings will be recorded in “gold grams” instead of dollars and cents.

PROS:

GSA is another convenient and liquid way to invest in gold. Investors can deposit or withdraw gold grams at their convenience in cash form.

Investors can also open a GSA using part of their CPF money under the CPF Investment Scheme.

CONS:

Gold grams cannot be exchanged for physical gold for retail investors. They can only be deposited or withdrawn in cash. UOB also charges a small monthly fee for GSA.

I have heard critics saying that GSA is just another form of gold derivative and is therefore not as safe as investing in physical gold. Furthermore, unlike cash deposits, GSAs are not covered under the Deposit Insurance Scheme. The risk therefore lies in the solvency of UOB. I personally would not worry too much as long as UOB remains a stable and well-managed bank. In fact I have invested part of my CPF money in a GSA account with UOB.

CONCLUSION:

GSA is a convenient and low-cost way to invest in gold (derivative). The safety of your investment  is tied to the solvency of the bank (UOB).

GOLD CERTIFICATES:

UOB bank sells unallocated gold certificates in Singapore. These certificates are sold in kilobars and are redeemable for physical gold at any time (Note: I believe the redemption is on a “best effort” basis though, ie. non-guaranteed).

GOLD ETF (SPDR):

Investors can buy Gold ETF listed in the Singapore Exchange under the ticker symbol GLD 10US$, also known as SPDR (prounounced as “spider”) Gold Shares. This is a low cost fund backed by physical gold (held in custody in the US) and is traded in US dollar.

PROS:

Gold ETF is one of the most convenient ways to invest without having to take physical delivery of gold. All you need is a share trading account and you can buy or sell it at anytime, just like buying or selling shares of any other publicly listed companies. Investors have assurance that the fund is 100% backed by physical gold. Investors can also buy SPDR using part of their CPF money under the CPF Investment Scheme.

CONS:

Since it’s traded in US dollars, you will have to incur a foreign exchange fee. There are also other fees built into the fund (eg. audit and storage fees) which, in my opinion is quite negligible.

Even though the fund provides for the possibility of taking physical possession of the gold bars, it is generally unrealistic in practise, since under the fund agreement, physical gold can only be redeemed in blocks of 100,000 shares (ie. close to SGD$2 mil at today’s price).

There is also a concern that it is susceptible to fraud, just like any other listed companies.

I personally think that the possibility of fraud is very slim as long as proper safety measures are in place. In the case of SPDR, the gold is held in the form of a “Trust” and the trustees are allowed to visit and inspect the gold held by the custodian, HSBC bank USA, twice a year. The Trust’s independent auditors may also audit the Gold holdings in the vault as part of their audit of the Financial Statements of the Trust.

However, US has a precedent of gold confiscation which investors may want to take into account. This happened in the year 1933 during the Great Depression.

Executive Order 6102 (Gold Confiscation Order, 5th April 1933)

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On 4th January 2010 (ie. yesterday) , the S&P 500 rose 1.6%. Gold rose 2.23% to US$1120.90 and Silver rose 4.21% to US$17.61. Platinum and Paladium also rose 3.75% and 3.20% respectively. Oil rose 2.70% to US$81.51.

Inflation makes our money worth less and it makes sense for us to hedge against it. But what’s the best way to hedge against inflation?

To address this question, it’s useful to understand what causes inflation.

Simply put, inflation is caused by an expansion in money supply.

Under the fiat monetary system, governments can increase the supply of money and credit at will (aka. printing money), which is what they have done since the onslaught of the “subprime” crisis. Once the economy recovers and banks start to lend again with the expanded monetary base, the velocity of money increases, chasing after other asset classes. In addition, the prohibitively low interest rate (close to zero percent for US dollar at this moment) forces investors and speculators to get out of their short-term cash to invest in higher yielding assets (see my previous post here).

Therefore, the best way to hedge against inflation is to invest in high-yield stocks.

Another way is to buy hard assets like commodities, including agriculture commodities and industrial metals, as well as precious and semi-precious metals (eg. Gold and Silver).

The idea is to get out of cash, which the government can create out of thin air, and exchange it for some other assets.

I believe that inflationary pressure will continue to gather pace from here resulting in another asset bubble.

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(1) The tip-giver may be wrong;

(2) The tip-giver may change his mind about a particular stock. For example, the prospect of the underlying company may change, for better or for worse;

(3) The third reason, perhaps the most important reason, is that for an investor to do well, he must have the correct attitude and mindset toward investing.

I believe in “self-reliance”, no matter what I invest in. I only invest in things that I understand. It doesn’t matter that there are very few things I understand, as long as I stay within my circle of competence. As time goes by, my circle of competence expands.

It’s important that I do my own research and decide for myself which company or what financial instrument I want to invest in.

The greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, once said that if a person cannot stand to see share prices drop by 50%, that person has no business investing.

That means an investor should do his own research. It also means he should stay away from leverage.

If I had done my own research, that alone will give me the confidence to hold on to a company I had just bought if the share price drops by 50%. That is if my research shows that the company is worth more than the price I had initially paid. I will be in a better position to decide the action, if any, that I should take.

In my experience, stock markets often behave in an irrational manner in the short to medium term. An undervalued company can become even more undervalued a few weeks or a few months later and vice versa. A rational investor can take advantage of such price actions.

An astute investor can often tell, with a high degree of accuracy, that a particular company is worth “much more” than a particular per-share price. The difficulty lies in the fact that most of the time, it is almost impossible to predict whether the company will continue to be undervalued or become even more undervalued in the short to medium term. In the longer term the share price will rise to reflect the intrinsic value of the company.

Trading or market timing can be highly profitable in certain situations but for most people the surest and easiest way to make a profit is to ignore the short term volatility and invest for the long term.

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– Bill Gross

I believe we’re in the early stage of a super boom in asset prices, thanks to a stabilizing economy and an expansion in money supply around the world.

China had gone shopping all over the world for resources it knows it will need as the economy recovers, as well as to diversify away from the US dollar.

I’m expecting commodity and asset prices in general to go much higher over the next decade.

The credit contraction due to the “subprime” crisis has temporarily suppressed commodity prices and caused commodity producers to delay their projects which had suddenly become unprofitable. This will lead to a supply bottleneck as the economy recovers and demand starts picking up.

The unprecedented monetary expansion around the world will inevitably lead to much higher inflation rate which will be reflected in higher asset prices.

There’s a lot of money on the sideline waiting to get out of cash and into higher-yielding assets.

As Bill Gross has highlighted in his recent commentary, there are over $4 trillion dollars in the money market funds with a yield of “close to nothing”. That’s in the US alone. Bill noted that such prohibitively low interest rate will “force or entice investors to term out their short-term cash into higher-risk bonds or stocks”.

There’s also a huge amount of private funds and sovereign wealth funds on the sideline which will be chasing after higher-yielding assets as the economy recovers.

I’m therefore fully invested, particularly in commodity-related companies including oil, mining and agriculture. My portfolio is concentrated in companies that have businesses in China, Australia and emerging markets. I am particularly excited about the growth prospects of emerging markets as well as resource-rich countries like Australia, Canada and Brazil.

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